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Annual report: transportation results

Write the results discussion for six performance measures in Alberta Transportation and Economic Corridors' 2024-25 annual report, comparing each result with its target and with earlier years.

The results discussion the ministry actually published in its 2024-25 annual report.

How they did: 4 of 4 acceptable

Acceptable means no deal-breaker and a score of at least 80. Scroll sideways on a phone.

What the grader checksDeepSeek V4.1 FlashMuse Spark 1.3GPT-6 LunaClaude Sonnet 5
VerdictAcceptableAcceptableAcceptableAcceptable
Score (out of 100)91898682
Cost · time0.66¢ · 1.4 min3¢ · 42 s0.18¢ · 20 s8.2¢ · 1.2 min
Deal-breaker Gives the 2024-25 collision rate of 51.6 per 100,000 people✓✓✓✓
Deal-breaker Works out that the collision rate was 8.1 above its target of 43.5✓✓✓✓
Important Gives the 79% of the capital plan that went to economic corridors✓✓✓✓
Important Gives the truck driver vacancy rate of 0.90%✓✓✓✓
Important Works out that 86% of highways were in good or fair condition (59% + 27%)✓✗✗✗
Important Gives the 14% of highways in poor condition✓✓✓✓
Important Gives the winter maintenance result of 96%✓✓✓✓
Important Gives the 93,550 tonnes of asphalt used for summer surface treatments✓✓✓✓
Minor Works out the target of 84% of highways in good or fair condition (58% + 26%)✓✗✗✗
Minor Works out last year's 85% of highways in good or fair condition (58% + 27%)✗✗✗✗
Deal-breaker Is written in English✓✓✓✓
Important Uses the required sections: Performance Measure 1.a, Performance Measure 1.b, Performance Measure 2.a, Performance Measure 3.a, Performance Measure 3.b, Performance Measure 3.c✓✓✓✓
Important Stays within the 2,650-word limit✓✓✓✓
Deal-breaker Every quotation appears word for word in the source documents✓✓✓✓
Important Every number can be traced to the source documents✗✗✗✗
Deal-breaker Knows that lower is better for truck driver vacancies and for collisions: reports vacancies as beating their target and collisions as missing theirs✓✓✓✓
Important Compares this year's results with earlier years, not just with the targets, for at least four of the six measures✓✓✓✓
Important Doesn't credit results to specific causes, programs or events the documents don't support (hedged, general explanations are fine)✗✓✓✗
Important Gets this point across: The collision rate target was missed: the 2024-25 rate of 51.6 per 100,000 was 8.1 above the 43.5 target.✓✓✓✓
Important Gets this point across: The collision rate has risen each year since 2021, reversing a long-term decline, though it remains low by historical standards.✓✓✓✓
Important Gets this point across: All other measures met or beat their targets: corridor capital allocation, truck driver vacancies, highway condition, winter maintenance and summer surface treatments.✓✓✗✗
Important Gets this point across: The truck driver job vacancy rate of 0.90 per cent was well below the 1.67 per cent target.✓✓✓✓

What each model wrote

✓ AcceptableDeepSeek V4.1 Flashscore 91 · 0.66¢ · 1.4 min

Performance Measure 1.a Percentage of Transportation and Economic Corridors' capital plan allocated to existing or planned economic corridors

In 2024-25, 79 per cent of TEC’s capital plan was allocated to existing or planned economic corridors. The 2024-25 target was 75 per cent. The result was 4 percentage points above target, so the target was met. The result was 1 percentage point above 2023-24, when 78 per cent was allocated, and 1 percentage point below 2022-23, when 80 per cent was allocated. The 2023-24 result was 3 percentage points above its 75 per cent target. The 2022-23 actual was higher than the 2024-27 targets because the definition of economic corridor changed from the National Highway System to corridors of national and provincial economic importance. The 2024-25 allocation reflects continued prioritization of economic corridors, including support for the movement of oversized and overweight loads.

Performance Measure 1.b Percentage of commercial truck driver job vacancies in relation to the total number of licensed commercial truck drivers

In 2024-25, commercial truck driver job vacancies were 0.90 per cent in relation to the total number of licensed Class 1 and Class 3 commercial truck drivers. The 2024-25 target was 1.67 per cent. The result was 0.77 percentage points below target. Because a lower vacancy rate is favourable for this measure, the target was met. The result was 0.59 percentage points lower than 2023-24, when vacancies were 1.49 per cent, and 0.82 percentage points lower than 2022-23, when vacancies were 1.72 per cent. The 2023-24 result was 0.24 percentage points below its target of 1.73 per cent.

Supporting data indicate that transport truck driver vacancies in Alberta were 2,695 at the end of Q4 2024 and averaged 2,539 across all quarters of 2024. Alberta drivers holding a Class 1 or Class 3 driver’s licence numbered 289,109 in 2024. The Driving Back to Work grant supported over 2,000 Albertans to take driver training over the past four years to 2024-25, and TEC provided $1,700,000 to Women Building Futures in 2024-25 for women entering commercial driving. These initiatives support commercial driver supply and help explain the lower vacancy percentage. Target met.

Performance Measure 2.a Combined fatal and major injury collision rate per 100,000 population

In 2024-25, the three-year rolling average combined fatal and major injury collision rate was 51.6 per 100,000 population. The 2024-25 target was 43.5. The result was 8.1 above target, so the target was not met. The result was 2.2 higher than 2023-24, when the rate was 49.4; 5.0 higher than 2022-23, when the rate was 46.6; 5.8 higher than 2021-22, when the rate was 45.8; and 3.6 higher than 2020-21, when the rate was 48.0.

Prior-year targets show a similar pattern in recent years. In 2023-24, the result of 49.4 was 6.4 above the target of 43.0. In 2022-23, the result of 46.6 was 1.1 above the target of 45.5. In 2021-22, the result of 45.8 was 4.2 below the target of 50.0. In 2020-21, the result of 48.0 was 6.0 below the target of 54.0. The 2007 rate was 91.5 per 100,000 population.

The long-term trend since 2007 has been downward, but recent annual increases have moved the three-year rolling average upward, indicating a plateau or possible trend reversal. Last year’s annual report discussion noted that the long-term decrease is related to multiple factors, including enforcement, engineering practices, evidence-based decision-making, community mobilization, strategic communication and education initiatives, and the level of overall support for those strategic initiatives. Other contributing factors include changing population demographics, economic activity in the province, and increases in the number of drivers and registered vehicles, which influence traffic volumes. The COVID-19 pandemic and hybrid work models reduced traffic volumes and possibly collision rates at the population level; post-pandemic economic recovery may have led to increased collisions. Unemployment trends also affect traffic volumes. The collision rate is calculated as a three-year rolling average, which factors in peaks and valleys in collision data. Advancements in vehicle safety features are expected to positively affect traffic safety over time. Many traffic safety initiatives are about changing attitudes and behaviours and can take years or decades to achieve. Programs such as enhanced training for commercial drivers and changes to the delivery model for road tests may have had some impact by supporting safety on Alberta roads. Target not met.

Performance Measure 3.a Physical condition of provincial highway surfaces

In 2024-25, 59 per cent of provincial highway surfaces were rated good, 27 per cent fair, and 14 per cent poor. The 2024-25 targets were 58 per cent good, 26 per cent fair, and 16 per cent poor. The good result exceeded target by 1 percentage point. The poor result was 2 percentage points below target, which is favourable because a lower poor share indicates better condition. The fair result was 1 percentage point above target. Overall, 86 per cent of highways were good or fair and 14 per cent were poor, compared with the target profile of 84 per cent good or fair and 16 per cent poor. Targets were met for the good and poor categories; fair was 1 percentage point above its target.

Prior-year results were as follows. Good: 58 per cent in 2023-24, 57.8 per cent in 2022-23, 58.6 per cent in 2021-22, and 59 per cent in 2020-21. Fair: 27 per cent in 2023-24, 26 per cent in 2022-23, 25.5 per cent in 2021-22, and 25.3 per cent in 2020-21. Poor: 15 per cent in 2023-24, 16.2 per cent in 2022-23, 15.9 per cent in 2021-22, and 15.7 per cent in 2020-21. The 2024-27 business plan rounds the 2022-23 result to 58 per cent good, 26 per cent fair, and 16 per cent poor; the results data file gives more precise 2022-23 values of 57.8 per cent, 26 per cent, and 16.2 per cent. The 2024-25 poor share is the lowest in the period shown, and the good share returned to 59 per cent, equal to 2020-21. Maintenance and rehabilitation reduce the total life-cycle cost of the highway system and improve return on investment. The movement from poor to fair and good categories reflects ongoing maintenance and rehabilitation work.

Performance Measure 3.b Winter maintenance is completed within or above the specified contract requirements

In 2024-25, winter maintenance was completed within or above specified contract requirements 96 per cent of the time. The 2024-25 target was 95 per cent. The result was 1 percentage point above target, so the target was met. The result was 1 percentage point lower than 2023-24, when 97 per cent was achieved, and 1 percentage point higher than 2022-23, when 95 per cent was achieved. The 2023-24 result was 2 percentage points above its 95 per cent target. This measure evaluates the effectiveness of snow and ice control on the highway system, with targets for storm response and returning highways to good winter driving conditions defined within contracts. The 2024-25 performance remained above target, with year-to-year variation likely reflecting winter conditions and contract delivery. Target met.

Performance Measure 3.c Summer surface treatments (tonnes of asphalt treatment product) are completed on paved highways to ensure safe and efficient travel

In 2024-25, 93,550 tonnes of asphalt treatment product were used for summer surface treatments. The 2024-25 target was 85,000 tonnes. The result was 8,550 tonnes above target, so the target was met and exceeded. The result was 120,020 tonnes lower than 2023-24, when 213,570 tonnes were used, and 9,600 tonnes lower than 2022-23, when 103,150 tonnes were used. The 2023-24 result was 128,570 tonnes above its 85,000-tonne target. No 2022-23 target is listed in the results data.

This measure covers maintenance activities such as pothole filling and paver, machine, and hand patching. The 2024-25 quantity remained above target but was closer to 2022-23 levels than to the unusually high 2023-24 level. The result indicates that sufficient asphalt treatment product was used to keep paved highways safe and efficient to drive. Target met.

The 2025-28 business plan has since been tabled; it does not change the 2024-25 target comparisons in this results discussion.

✓ AcceptableMuse Spark 1.3score 89 · 3¢ · 42 s

Performance Measure 1.a Percentage of Transportation and Economic Corridors' capital plan allocated to existing or planned economic corridors

Result: In 2024-25, 79 per cent of the ministry's capital plan was allocated to existing or planned economic corridors.

This result is 4 percentage points above the 2024-25 business plan target of 75 per cent. The target was met.

Compared with prior years, the result is 1 percentage point above the 2023-24 result of 78 per cent, and 1 percentage point below the 2022-23 result of 80 per cent. The 2023-24 target was 75 per cent.

The measure supports the movement of oversized and overweight loads on corridors that have national and provincial economic importance. As noted in the 2024-27 business plan, the definition of economic corridor changed from "the National Highway System" to "corridors that have national and provincial economic importance" to reflect priorities on economic corridors. That change explains why the 2022-23 actual of 80 per cent was higher than the 2024-27 targets of 75 per cent in 2024-25, 76 per cent in 2025-26 and 77 per cent in 2026-27. The source documents do not identify additional specific projects or factors behind the change from 78 per cent in 2023-24 to 79 per cent in 2024-25.

Performance Measure 1.b Percentage of commercial truck driver job vacancies in relation to the total number of licensed commercial truck drivers

Result: In 2024-25, commercial truck driver job vacancies were 0.90 per cent of the number of Alberta drivers holding a Class 1 or Class 3 driver's licence.

This result is 0.77 percentage points below the 2024-25 business plan target of 1.67 per cent. Because the objective is to reduce vacancies, a lower result represents better performance. The target was met.

Compared with prior years, the result improved from 1.49 per cent in 2023-24 and 1.72 per cent in 2022-23. The 2023-24 target was 1.73 per cent, which was also met. The result declined by 0.59 percentage points from 2023-24 to 2024-25.

The result reflects both fewer vacancies and the size of the licensed driver pool. Statistics Canada reported 2,539 transport truck driver job vacancies in Alberta averaged across all quarters in 2024, including 2,695 vacancies at the end of Q4 2024. Alberta had 289,109 drivers holding a Class 1 or Class 3 driver's licence in 2024.

Main factors cited in the source data include ministry efforts to support recruitment and training. Over the past four years to 2024-25, over 2,000 Albertans were supported to take driver training through the Driving Back to Work grant. In 2024-25, the ministry provided $1,700,000 to Women Building Futures to support women entering commercial driving.

Performance Measure 2.a Combined fatal and major injury collision rate per 100,000 population

Result: In 2024-25, the three-year rolling average combined fatal and major injury collision rate was 51.6 per 100,000 population.

This result is 8.1 above the 2024-25 business plan target of 43.5, which the ministry aims not to exceed. The target was not met.

Compared with prior three-year averages, the rate increased by 2.2 from 49.4 in 2023-24. Earlier results were 46.6 in 2022-23, 45.8 in 2021-22, and 48.0 in 2020-21. Prior targets were 43.0 in 2023-24, 45.5 in 2022-23, 50.0 in 2021-22 and 54.0 in 2020-21. Rates may be revised as final data is verified.

As discussed in the 2023-24 annual report, the combined rate had been decreasing almost every year since 2007, with the exception of a plateau from 2011 to 2015. The single-year rate in 2007 was 91.5 per 100,000 population, so the 2024-25 three-year average of 51.6 remains well below that level. In 2022 the single-year rate increased slightly by 0.8 per 100,000 population, and in 2023 it increased by 2.8 per 100,000 population. The 2023-24 report noted that 2022 and 2023 rates remained among the lowest recorded. The source documents for 2024-25 do not provide the single-year rate for 2024.

The 2023-24 discussion identified multiple long-term factors behind the decrease, including enforcement, engineering practices, evidence-based decision-making, community mobilization, strategic communication and education initiatives, and the level of overall support for these initiatives. Changing population demographics, economic activity, and increases in the number of drivers and registered vehicles can influence traffic volumes and the collision rate. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-21 reduced traffic volumes as more people worked from home, possibly lowering population-level collision rates. In 2022, Alberta's 389 Automated Traffic Recorders measured a 5.2 per cent decrease in traffic volumes compared with 2018, but a 2.2 per cent increase compared with 2021, suggesting post-pandemic economic recovery may have led to increased collisions for 2022 and beyond. High unemployment, which averaged over 11 per cent in 2020 compared with the 8 per cent average between 2018-22, also affects traffic volumes.

The rate is calculated as a three-year rolling average, which smooths peaks and valleys from year to year. The impact of COVID-19 was still felt in last year's rolling average, although to a lesser extent than the year before, and that influence lessens further as traffic volumes rise. Advancements in vehicle safety features, such as lane warning systems, back-up cameras, adaptive cruise control, and emergency braking sensors, are expected to positively impact safety. Many initiatives, such as reducing impaired driving or increasing occupant restraint use, and programs such as enhanced training for commercial drivers and changes to road test delivery, involve changing attitudes and behaviours over several years. The source documents do not provide additional specific factors for the increase to 51.6 in 2024-25.

Performance Measure 3.a Physical condition of provincial highway surfaces

Result: In 2024-25, 59 per cent of highways were rated good, 27 per cent fair, and 14 per cent poor.

Targets for 2024-25 were 58 per cent good, 26 per cent fair, and 16 per cent poor.

The good target was met, at 1 percentage point above target. The poor target was met, at 2 percentage points below target, with a lower share in poor condition representing better performance. The fair result was 1 percentage point above its target of 26 per cent.

Compared with prior years:

  • Good: 58 per cent in 2023-24, 57.8 per cent in 2022-23, 58.6 per cent in 2021-22, and 59 per cent in 2020-21. The 2024-25 result is 1 percentage point above 2023-24.
  • Fair: 27 per cent in 2023-24, 26 per cent in 2022-23, 25.5 per cent in 2021-22, and 25.3 per cent in 2020-21. The 2024-25 result is unchanged from 2023-24.
  • Poor: 15 per cent in 2023-24, 16.2 per cent in 2022-23, 15.9 per cent in 2021-22, and 15.7 per cent in 2020-21. The 2024-25 result is 1 percentage point below 2023-24.

The 2024-27 business plan reported 2022-23 as 58 per cent good, 26 per cent fair and 16 per cent poor, which are the rounded values of the 57.8, 26 and 16.2 per cent figures above.

Maintenance and rehabilitation reduce the total life cycle cost of the highway system, improving return on investment. The source documents do not identify specific additional factors behind the year-to-year changes in 2024-25.

Performance Measure 3.b Winter maintenance is completed within or above the specified contract requirements

Result: In 2024-25, 96 per cent of winter maintenance met or exceeded specified contract requirements.

This result is 1 percentage point above the 2024-25 business plan target of 95 per cent. The target was met.

Compared with prior years, the result is 1 percentage point below the 2023-24 result of 97 per cent, and 1 percentage point above the 2022-23 result of 95 per cent. The 2023-24 target was 95 per cent.

The metric evaluates the effectiveness of snow and ice control on the highway system. Targets for storm response and returning the highway to good winter driving conditions are defined within the contracts. The source documents do not identify specific additional factors behind the change from 97 per cent in 2023-24 to 96 per cent in 2024-25.

Performance Measure 3.c Summer surface treatments (tonnes of asphalt treatment product) are completed on paved highways to ensure safe and efficient travel

Result: In 2024-25, 93,550 tonnes of asphalt treatment product were used.

This result is 8,550 tonnes above the 2024-25 business plan target of 85,000 tonnes. The target was met.

Compared with prior years, the result is 120,020 tonnes below the 2023-24 result of 213,570 tonnes, and 9,600 tonnes below the 2022-23 result of 103,150 tonnes. The 2023-24 target was 85,000 tonnes.

The metric measures tonnes of asphalt treatment product used in maintenance activities such as pothole filling, and paver, machine, and hand patching, to ensure appropriate quantities are used to keep highways safe to drive. The source documents do not identify specific additional factors behind the variation in tonnage, including the higher tonnage in 2023-24.

✓ AcceptableGPT-6 Lunascore 86 · 0.18¢ · 20 s

Performance Measure 1.a

Percentage of Transportation and Economic Corridors’ capital plan allocated to existing or planned economic corridors

In 2024-25, 79 per cent of the ministry’s capital plan was allocated to existing or planned economic corridors. This exceeded the business plan target of 75 per cent by 4 percentage points. The result was 1 percentage point higher than the 78 per cent reported in 2023-24, and 1 percentage point lower than the 80 per cent reported in 2022-23.

The target was met. The business plan noted that the 2022-23 result was higher than the targets because the definition of an economic corridor had changed from the National Highway System to corridors with national and provincial economic importance. The 2024-25 result remained above target under that definition. The information available does not identify other specific factors behind the year-over-year change.

Performance Measure 1.b

Percentage of commercial truck driver job vacancies in relation to the total number of licensed commercial truck drivers

In 2024-25, commercial truck driver job vacancies were 0.90 per cent of licensed Class 1 and Class 3 drivers. This was 0.77 percentage points below the business plan target of 1.67 per cent, and 0.59 percentage points lower than the 1.49 per cent result in 2023-24. It was also below the 1.72 per cent reported in 2022-23.

The target was met. Statistics Canada reported an average of 2,539 transport truck driver vacancies in Alberta in 2024 and 2,695 vacancies at the end of the fourth quarter. Alberta had 289,109 drivers with a Class 1 or Class 3 licence in 2024. These figures provide context for the measure; they do not, by themselves, explain the change in the reported result.

Over the past four years to 2024-25, more than 2,000 Albertans were supported to take driver training through the Driving Back to Work grant. In 2024-25, the ministry also provided $1.7 million to Women Building Futures to support women entering commercial driving. The information available does not establish how much these initiatives contributed to the result.

Performance Measure 2.a

Combined fatal and major injury collision rate per 100,000 population

In 2024-25, the three-year rolling average combined fatal and major injury collision rate was 51.6 per 100,000 population. This was 8.1 above the business plan target of 43.5. The target was not met. The result increased by 2.2 from 49.4 in 2023-24 and by 5.0 from 46.6 in 2022-23. Earlier results were 45.8 in 2021-22 and 48.0 in 2020-21.

The increase continues the pattern discussed in last year’s annual report. That report noted that the rate had risen in 2022 and 2023 after a long-term decline, while remaining below rates recorded in pre-COVID-19 years. It identified factors that can influence collision rates, including traffic volumes, economic activity, population demographics and the number of drivers and registered vehicles. It also noted that enforcement, engineering practices, education and other traffic safety initiatives can contribute to road safety. These factors may affect results over time, but the information provided for 2024-25 does not identify the specific causes of this year’s increase.

The three-year rolling average smooths year-to-year changes in collision data. For long-term context, the supplied data report a rate of 91.5 per 100,000 population in 2007, compared with 51.6 in 2024-25.

Performance Measure 3.a

Physical condition of provincial highway surfaces

In 2024-25, 59 per cent of provincial highway surfaces were rated good, 27 per cent fair and 14 per cent poor. Compared with the respective targets of 58, 26 and 16 per cent, the good result was 1 percentage point above target, the fair result was 1 percentage point above target, and the poor result was 2 percentage points below target.

The targets were met for the good and poor categories, but not for the fair category; therefore, the targets were not met across all three categories. Compared with 2023-24, the share rated good increased by 1 percentage point, the share rated fair was unchanged, and the share rated poor decreased by 1 percentage point. In 2022-23, the corresponding results were 57.8 per cent good, 26 per cent fair and 16.2 per cent poor. The measure tracks the condition of highway surfaces; the information available does not identify specific factors behind the 2024-25 changes.

Performance Measure 3.b

Winter maintenance is completed within or above the specified contract requirements

In 2024-25, winter maintenance was completed within or above specified contract requirements 96 per cent of the time. This exceeded the 95 per cent business plan target by 1 percentage point. The target was met. The result was 1 percentage point below the 97 per cent reported in 2023-24 and 1 percentage point above the 95 per cent reported in 2022-23.

The measure assesses whether snow and ice control meets contract requirements for storm response and returning highways to good winter driving conditions. The available information does not identify specific factors behind the change from the prior year.

Performance Measure 3.c

Summer surface treatments (tonnes of asphalt treatment product) are completed on paved highways to ensure safe and efficient travel

In 2024-25, 93,550 tonnes of asphalt treatment product were used on paved highways. This exceeded the business plan target of 85,000 tonnes by 8,550 tonnes, or about 10.1 per cent. The target was met. The result was 120,020 tonnes lower than the 213,570 tonnes used in 2023-24, but 9,600 tonnes higher than the 103,150 tonnes used in 2022-23.

The measure covers asphalt treatment product used in maintenance activities such as pothole filling and paver, machine and hand patching. The information available does not explain the substantial year-over-year change in tonnes used.

✓ AcceptableClaude Sonnet 5score 82 · 8.2¢ · 1.2 min

Results Analysis: Performance Measures

Performance Measure 1.a

Percentage of Transportation and Economic Corridors' capital plan allocated to existing or planned economic corridors

The 2024-25 result for this measure was 79 per cent, exceeding the 2024-25 business plan target of 75 per cent by 4 percentage points. The target was met.

This result continues a stable pattern for the ministry's capital investment in economic corridors. The measure stood at 80 per cent in 2022-23, the first year under the current definition of economic corridor (corridors of national and provincial economic importance, rather than the narrower National Highway System definition used previously). In 2023-24 the result was 78 per cent, also above that year's target, and the 2024-25 result of 79 per cent represents a 1 percentage point increase over the prior year.

The consistently strong results reflect the ministry's continued prioritization of capital spending on highways, bridges and other infrastructure that support the movement of goods, including oversized and overweight loads, along corridors of strategic economic significance. Because the redefinition of "economic corridor" broadened the scope of qualifying capital projects, results since 2022-23 have consistently outperformed the targets set under the 2024-27 Business Plan, which were calibrated conservatively following the definitional change. The ministry expects results to remain in this range as it continues to direct capital toward corridors that connect Alberta's key economic regions, resource areas and international gateways.

Performance Measure 1.b

Percentage of commercial truck driver job vacancies in relation to the total number of licensed commercial truck drivers

The 2024-25 result was 0.90 per cent, which is 0.77 percentage points below the business plan target of 1.67 per cent. Because a lower vacancy rate indicates progress in addressing labour shortages in the commercial trucking sector, the target was met, and by a wide margin.

This result continues a marked downward trend. The rate stood at 1.72 per cent in 2022-23 and improved to 1.49 per cent in 2023-24 (against a target of 1.73 per cent). The 2024-25 result of 0.90 per cent represents a further decline of 0.59 percentage points from the prior year, and is the lowest rate recorded in the three years for which comparable data are available.

The improvement reflects both labour market conditions and ministry initiatives. Statistics Canada data show that transport truck driver job vacancies in Alberta averaged 2,539 per quarter in 2024, with 2,695 vacancies recorded at the end of the fourth quarter, measured against a base of 289,109 Albertans holding a Class 1 or Class 3 driver's licence. The relatively small number of vacancies compared to the size of the licensed driver pool is the primary driver of the low percentage result. Contributing factors include a general easing of post-pandemic labour shortages across the trucking sector, as well as targeted ministry programs to grow the pool of qualified drivers. Over the past four years, more than 2,000 Albertans have been supported through the Driving Back to Work grant to take driver training, and in 2024-25 the ministry provided $1.7 million in funding to Women Building Futures to support women entering commercial driving occupations. These initiatives, combined with broader economic and demographic trends affecting labour supply, are expected to continue supporting low vacancy rates in future years, although the ministry recognizes that vacancy rates can fluctuate with overall economic activity and trucking sector demand.

Performance Measure 2.a

Combined fatal and major injury collision rate per 100,000 population

The 2024-25 result for this measure was 51.6 collisions per 100,000 population (three-year rolling average), which is 8.1 points above the business plan target of 43.5 that the ministry aims not to exceed. The target was not met.

This result continues a trend of year-over-year increases that has now persisted for three consecutive reporting periods. The rate was 45.8 in 2021-22 (against a target of 50.0), 46.6 in 2022-23 (against a target of 45.5), 49.4 in 2023-24 (against a target of 43.0), and 51.6 in 2024-25 (against a target of 43.5). The gap between the result and the target has widened in each of the past three years, from 1.1 points above target in 2022-23, to 6.4 points above target in 2023-24, to 8.1 points above target in 2024-25. The year-over-year increase in the rate itself, from 49.4 to 51.6, was 2.2 points, continuing the upward movement first identified in 2022 and reiterated in last year's annual report discussion.

Despite this trend, the current rate remains well below the pre-2007 historical baseline of 91.5 per 100,000 population, indicating that the long-term downward trend achieved through sustained traffic safety strategies since the mid-2000s has not been reversed, even though results have moved further from target in recent years. As reported previously, several interacting factors are understood to be driving the recent increases: rising traffic volumes as the province's population and economic activity continue to grow and recover from pandemic-era lows; changes in driver behaviour and demographics; and the fact that the collision rate is calculated as a three-year rolling average, meaning that a run of higher annual results compounds over successive reporting years even as underlying yearly trends may vary. Longer-term behavioural factors, such as impaired driving and use of occupant restraints, continue to influence results and require sustained multi-year effort to shift.

The ministry considers traffic safety a continuing priority. Enforcement, engineering improvements, evidence-based program design, and public education and communication initiatives remain the ministry's core tools for addressing this trend. The persistence of results above target for three consecutive years has informed the ministry's approach to target-setting and program priorities reflected in the 2025-28 Business Plan, under which the ministry continues to pursue aggressive collision-reduction goals while accounting for the structural pressures of population growth and rising traffic volumes on this measure.

Performance Measure 3.a

Physical condition of provincial highway surfaces

The 2024-25 results were 59 per cent of provincial highway surfaces rated good, 27 per cent rated fair, and 14 per cent rated poor. Measured against the 2024-25 business plan targets of 58 per cent good, 26 per cent fair and 16 per cent poor, the good and poor components of this measure met or exceeded target, while the fair component did not.

  • Good: the result of 59 per cent was 1 percentage point above the 58 per cent target. The target was met.
  • Fair: the result of 27 per cent was 1 percentage point above the 26 per cent target. The target was not met.
  • Poor: the result of 14 per cent was 2 percentage points below the 16 per cent target, a favourable outcome since a lower proportion of highway in poor condition is desired. The target was met.

Compared with the prior year, the good category increased from 58 per cent to 59 per cent, the fair category remained unchanged at 27 per cent, and the poor category improved from 15 per cent to 14 per cent. Looking over the five years of available data, the good category has fluctuated narrowly between roughly 58 and 59 per cent (with a low of 57.8 per cent in 2022-23), the fair category has gradually increased from 25.3 per cent in 2020-21 to 27 per cent in the past two years, and the poor category has improved from a peak of 16.2 per cent in 2022-23 to 14 per cent in 2024-25.

Overall, the 2024-25 results show a highway network in slightly better condition than targeted, with more surfaces rated good and fewer rated poor than planned. The modest one-point excess in the fair category, which did not meet its exact target, is consistent with the general shift of some surfaces from poor to fair to good as they move through the ministry's maintenance and rehabilitation cycle. These results reflect sustained investment in preventive maintenance and rehabilitation activities designed to manage the life-cycle cost of the highway system and maximize the ministry's return on infrastructure investment.

Performance Measure 3.b

Winter maintenance is completed within or above the specified contract requirements

The 2024-25 result was 96 per cent, which is 1 percentage point above the business plan target of 95 per cent. The target was met.

This result is consistent with strong performance in prior years. The measure stood at 95 per cent in 2022-23 (meeting that year's implicit target) and improved to 97 per cent in 2023-24, before settling at 96 per cent in 2024-25 — a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous year but still 1 point above target.

The sustained performance above target reflects the ministry's continued management of winter maintenance contracts, which set out specific storm-response times and standards for returning highways to good winter driving condition. The slight decline from the prior year's result is within the normal range of variation associated with winter severity and storm frequency from year to year, and does not represent a change in the ministry's approach to contract oversight or performance management. The consistency of results at or above 95 per cent across the past three years demonstrates that the ministry's winter maintenance contracts continue to deliver effective snow and ice control across the provincial highway network.

Performance Measure 3.c

Summer surface treatments (tonnes of asphalt treatment product) are completed on paved highways to ensure safe and efficient travel

The 2024-25 result was 93,550 tonnes of asphalt treatment product used in summer maintenance activities, compared with the business plan target of 85,000 tonnes — 8,550 tonnes, or about 10 per cent, above target. The target was not met.

This result should be read in the context of substantial year-to-year variation in this measure. In 2022-23, 103,150 tonnes were used. In 2023-24, usage rose sharply to 213,570 tonnes, more than 2.5 times the 85,000-tonne target for that year, reflecting an unusually high level of pavement damage requiring pothole filling and patching. The 2024-25 result of 93,550 tonnes represents a decrease of 120,020 tonnes from the prior year — a substantial normalization — while still exceeding the planned target by 8,550 tonnes.

The continued use of asphalt treatment product above target, even as volumes returned closer to historical norms, indicates ongoing pavement maintenance needs on the provincial highway network, including pothole filling and paver, machine and hand patching required to keep highways safe to drive. Factors contributing to demand for this maintenance work typically include the extent of freeze-thaw cycling and moisture infiltration experienced over the preceding winter and spring, both of which affect the rate of pavement deterioration and the volume of patching material required. The significant reduction from the extraordinary 2023-24 result suggests that the exceptional pavement damage experienced that year has largely been addressed, though the ministry continues to apply summer surface treatments at a level somewhat above the standing 85,000-tonne planning target to maintain safe driving conditions across the highway system.

What the models were given

The request
You are a performance measurement analyst in the Strategic Planning branch of Alberta Transportation and Economic Corridors (TEC). Draft the performance-measure results discussion for the Results Analysis section of the ministry's 2024-25 annual report, which is tabled in the Legislature and read by MLAs and the public. Cover performance measures 1.a, 1.b, 2.a, 3.a, 3.b and 3.c, using the attached targets from the 2024-27 business plan, the 2024-25 results data, and last year's annual report discussion of measure 2.a. Write one section per measure, headed 'Performance Measure 1.a', 'Performance Measure 1.b' and so on, each followed by the measure's name. For each measure, state the 2024-25 result, compare it with the 2024-25 business plan target and with prior years, say plainly whether the target was met, and explain the main factors behind the result. Compute any differences from target yourself. Where it is relevant, you may refer to the 2025-28 business plan, which has since been tabled. Use every figure consistently across the sections and make sure each one matches the source data. Write in English, in the plain, factual style of an annual report, in no more than 2650 words.
📄 business_plan_2024-27_performance_metrics.txt

Transportation and Economic Corridors — Business Plan 2024-27 (Budget 2024) Excerpt: outcomes and performance metrics (printed pages 148-151). Text transcribed from the published PDF; initiatives and key objectives omitted.

Outcome 1 Strategic economic corridor investments and innovation support Alberta's economic growth

Performance Metrics 1.a Performance Measure: Percentage of Transportation and Economic Corridors' capital plan allocated to existing or planned economic corridors This metric measures the percentage of the ministry's capital plan on economic corridors and supports the movement of oversized and overweight loads. In 2022-23, 80 per cent of the capital plan was allocated for economic corridors. This last actual is higher than 2024-27 targets due to a change in definition of economic corridor from "the National Highway System" to "corridors that have national and provincial economic importance" to reflect priorities on economic corridors. Targets 2024-25 75% 2025-26 76% 2026-27 77%

1.b Performance Measure: Percentage of commercial truck driver job vacancies in relation to the total number of licensed commercial truck drivers The percentage of commercial truck driver job vacancies in relation to the total number of Class 1 and Class 3 licenced commercial truck drivers in Alberta highlights efforts to reduce truck driver job vacancies. In 2022-23, commercial truck driver job vacancies were 1.72 per cent. Targets 2024-25 1.67% 2025-26 1.62% 2026-27 1.57%

Outcome 2 The transportation system is safe and secure, supported by policies, programs, educational opportunities and enhanced services protecting public safety

Performance Metric 2.a Performance Measure: Combined fatal and major injury collision rate per 100,000 population This metric measures the combined fatal and major injury collision rate to monitor progress of safety strategies in reducing the number and severity of traffic collisions on Alberta's roads. The 2022-23 result was 46.6 per 100,000 population. (Rates may be revised as final data is verified.) Targets 2024-25 43.5 2025-26 41.2 2026-27 38.9

Outcome 3 Alberta's transportation network and water management infrastructure is maintained effectively and responsibly, ensuring long-term sustainability and affordability

Performance Metrics 3.a Performance Measure: Physical condition of provincial highway surfaces Maintenance and rehabilitation reduce total life cycle cost of the highway system, improving return on investment. In 2022-23, 58 per cent of highways were rated good, 26 per cent fair, and 16 per cent poor. Targets: Good 2024-25 58% 2025-26 58% 2026-27 58% Targets: Fair 2024-25 26% 2025-26 26% 2026-27 26% Targets: Poor 2024-25 16% 2025-26 16% 2026-27 16%

3.b Performance Measure: Winter maintenance is completed within or above the specified contract requirements This metric evaluates the effectiveness of snow and ice control on the highway system. Targets for storm response and returning the highway to good winter driving conditions are defined within the contracts. The 2022-23 result was 95 per cent. Targets 2024-25 95% 2025-26 95% 2026-27 95%

3.c Performance Measure: Summer surface treatments (tonnes of asphalt treatment product) are completed on paved highways to ensure safe and efficient travel Measuring tonnes of asphalt treatment product used in maintenance activities such as pothole filling, and paver, machine, and hand patching, ensures appropriate quantities are used to keep the highways safe to drive. In 2022-23, 103,150 tonnes of asphalt treatment product were used. Targets 2024-25 85,000 2025-26 85,000 2026-27 85,000

📄 results_2024-25.csv
measure_idindicatorperiodresulttargetunit
1.aPercentage of TEC capital plan allocated to existing or planned economic corridors2022-2380per cent
1.aPercentage of TEC capital plan allocated to existing or planned economic corridors2023-247875per cent
1.aPercentage of TEC capital plan allocated to existing or planned economic corridors2024-257975per cent
1.bCommercial truck driver job vacancies as a percentage of licensed Class 1 and Class 3 drivers2022-231.72per cent
1.bCommercial truck driver job vacancies as a percentage of licensed Class 1 and Class 3 drivers2023-241.491.73per cent
1.bCommercial truck driver job vacancies as a percentage of licensed Class 1 and Class 3 drivers2024-250.901.67per cent
1.b-dataTransport truck driver job vacancies in Alberta at end of Q4 (Statistics Canada)2024 Q42695vacancies
1.b-dataTransport truck driver job vacancies in Alberta averaged across all quarters (Statistics Canada)20242539vacancies
1.b-dataAlberta drivers holding a Class 1 or Class 3 driver's licence2024289109drivers
1.b-dataDriving Back to Work (DBTW) grant: Albertans supported to take driver trainingpast four years to 2024-25over 2000people
1.b-dataTEC funding to Women Building Futures for women entering commercial driving2024-251700000dollars
2.aCombined fatal and major injury collision rate per 100000 population (three-year rolling average)2020-2148.054.0rate per 100000
2.aCombined fatal and major injury collision rate per 100000 population (three-year rolling average)2021-2245.850.0rate per 100000
2.aCombined fatal and major injury collision rate per 100000 population (three-year rolling average)2022-2346.645.5rate per 100000
2.aCombined fatal and major injury collision rate per 100000 population (three-year rolling average)2023-2449.443.0rate per 100000
2.aCombined fatal and major injury collision rate per 100000 population (three-year rolling average)2024-2551.643.5rate per 100000
2.a-dataCombined fatal and major injury collision rate per 100000 population200791.5rate per 100000
3.aPhysical condition of provincial highway surfaces - good2020-2159per cent
3.aPhysical condition of provincial highway surfaces - good2021-2258.6per cent
3.aPhysical condition of provincial highway surfaces - good2022-2357.8per cent
3.aPhysical condition of provincial highway surfaces - good2023-2458per cent
3.aPhysical condition of provincial highway surfaces - good2024-255958per cent
3.aPhysical condition of provincial highway surfaces - fair2020-2125.3per cent
3.aPhysical condition of provincial highway surfaces - fair2021-2225.5per cent
3.aPhysical condition of provincial highway surfaces - fair2022-2326per cent
3.aPhysical condition of provincial highway surfaces - fair2023-2427per cent
3.aPhysical condition of provincial highway surfaces - fair2024-252726per cent
3.aPhysical condition of provincial highway surfaces - poor2020-2115.7per cent
3.aPhysical condition of provincial highway surfaces - poor2021-2215.9per cent
3.aPhysical condition of provincial highway surfaces - poor2022-2316.2per cent
3.aPhysical condition of provincial highway surfaces - poor2023-2415per cent
3.aPhysical condition of provincial highway surfaces - poor2024-251416per cent
3.bWinter maintenance completed within or above specified contract requirements2022-2395per cent
3.bWinter maintenance completed within or above specified contract requirements2023-249795per cent
3.bWinter maintenance completed within or above specified contract requirements2024-259695per cent
3.cSummer surface treatments (asphalt treatment product used)2022-23103150tonnes
3.cSummer surface treatments (asphalt treatment product used)2023-2421357085000tonnes
3.cSummer surface treatments (asphalt treatment product used)2024-259355085000tonnes
📄 annual_report_2023-24_pm2a_excerpt.txt

Transportation and Economic Corridors — Annual Report 2023-2024 (published June 2024) Excerpt: Performance Measure 2.a, Combined fatal and major injury collision rate per 100,000 population — Results discussion (printed pages 51-52). Text transcribed from the published PDF; chart omitted.

Results: The three-year average combined fatal and major injury collision rate per 100,000 population was 49.4, which is 6.4 above the target of 43.0 that the ministry aims not to exceed. Overall, the combined fatal and major injury collision rate had been decreasing every year since 2007, with the exception of a plateau from 2011 to 2015. In 2022, the collision rate increased slightly by 0.8 collisions per 100,000 population, potentially signaling a plateau or trend reversal. This pattern continued in 2023, with an increase of 2.8 collisions per 100,000 population. However, despite these small increases, it should be noted that rates for 2022 and 2023 remain among the lowest rates recorded for this measure, and the rate for 2023-24 is still lower than any of the rates from pre-COVID-19 years (2007-2020).

The long-term decrease in the collision rate is related to multiple factors including enforcement, engineering practices, evidence-based decision-making, community mobilization, strategic communication and education initiatives, and the level of overall support for these strategic initiatives. Other external contributing factors such as changing population demographics, economic activity in the province, and increases in the number of drivers and registered vehicles may also influence the collision rate because of their influence on traffic volumes. For example, the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-21 has led more people to work from home due to the proliferation of hybrid work models. These shifts, which may be long-term, have had the effect of reducing traffic volumes and possibly collision rates at the population level. In 2022, Alberta’s 389 Automated Traffic Recorders measured a 5.2 per cent decrease in traffic volumes compared to 2018, but a 2.2 per cent increase compared to 2021, suggesting that post-pandemic economic recovery may have led to increased collisions for 2022 and beyond.

Another contributing factor is unemployment, which has been trending upward over the past five years has a similar impact on traffic volumes. Unemployment was at its highest in 2020, averaging over 11 per cent compared to the 8 per cent average between 2018-22. High unemployment rates persisted for first half of 2021, with some recovery in the latter half of the year.

The collision rate is calculated as a three-year rolling average, which factors in peaks and valleys of collision data that may occur from year to year. The impact of COVID-19 can still be felt in this year’s rolling average, although to a lesser extent than last year. In the future, as traffic volumes continue to rise, these impacts will have less influence on collision rate results. At the same time, advancements in vehicle safety features, such as such as lane warning systems, back-up cameras, adaptive cruise control, and emergency braking sensors are expected to positively impact traffic safety moving forward.

Transportation safety initiatives remain a priority for the ministry. Many traffic safety initiatives, such as reducing impaired driving or increasing occupant restraint use, are about changing attitudes and behaviours, which can take several years, if not decades to achieve. When determining targets for this performance measure, these types of longer-term goals are taken into consideration. Programs introduced in recent years, such as enhanced training for commercial drivers and changes to the delivery model for road tests, may have had some impact by supporting safety on Alberta roads.

Overall, there has been a long-term downward trend in serious collision rates since 2017 as a macro pattern, indicating that the ministry’s traffic safety initiatives are effective in protecting and saving lives. Despite recent increases, the overall number of fatal and major injury collisions has decreased over time, demonstrating sustained progress towards improved transportation safety in the province, even with significant population growth and increased traffic volumes. Taking into account these continuing enhancements to safety and overall positive results, the ministry continues to set aggressive targets to further reduce casualties and collisions in the 2024-27 Transportation and Economic Corridors Business Plan.

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